|
Performance analysis—both prospective and
retrospective—plays an important role in business and investing.
Consider some examples:
A
pension plan has used a particular investment manager to invest its
assets for the past five years. They want to perform a retrospective
assessment of his performance to determine whether they should keep him
for the next five years or replace him with a new manager. Their
performance assessment must look at both the
returns he has earned for them over
the past five years but also the risks
he has taken to earn those returns.
A
corporation has several business lines it can invest in, but limited
resources prevent it from investing in them all. The firm will choose
what mix of business lines to invest in based on a prospective
assessment of profitability and risk.
An
investor is allocating her assets to various asset classes—domestic
equities, foreign equities,
investment-grade bonds,
junk bonds, etc. She chooses an
asset allocation based on a prospective assessment of expected returns
and risk.
Such assessments must take risk into account. Since a
portfolio manager can boost expected returns merely by increasing his
systematic risk
(beta), performance evaluations must
adjust returns for risk. All else being equal, a firm would rather
invest in a low-risk business line than one that is equally profitable
but more risky. And, obviously, an investor allocating her assets must
balance risk against expected returns.
Stated another way, any performance assessment should
balance risk against reward. That is what a
risk-adjustment performance
metric (RAPM) does. A RAPM is a
performance
metric that assesses reward with some adjustment for the risks taken
to achieve that reward. What we mean by reward depends on the
application. It might be revenues, profits, returns, etc. Similarly,
risk might be measured as
volatility, beta,
value-at-risk, etc.
Various RAPMs are employed in finance. Some were
developed during the late 1960s for testing the
efficient market hypothesis
and are now used by practitioners for asset allocation or performance
assessment. These include the Treynor ratio,
the Sharpe ratio and
Jensen's alpha. Other RAPMs—including
ROC and its various
RAROC
interpretations—were developed during the 1980s and 1990s to support
economic capital
allocation.
|