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To price or mark-to-market a fixed income obligation, such as a
bond,
market participants must assume some
yield to maturity (YTM) or an entire
spot curve for discounting future cash flows. Many factors influence the
choice of YTM or spot curve that is used
to value a particular obligation. Depending upon the nature of the obligation,
these might include:
current market interest rates;
the maturity of the obligation;
credit risk of the obligation;
the
liquidity of the obligation;
embedded
options;
and
tax treatment of
the obligation.
Current market interest rates are reflected by some benchmark
yield curve or spot curve. Since
these are term structures, they reflect the maturity dependence of interest
rates. For USD-denominated instruments,
Treasuries are often used as a
benchmark. The swap curve is also used.
Contributions of other factors are modeled as
yield or interest rate
spreads over the
benchmark curve, so the YTM or spot curve at which a particular obligation's cash
flows are discounted is modeled as a benchmark curve plus a
spread for
credit risk, plus a spread for liquidity, plus a spread for embedded options,
etc. This is illustrated for a hypothetical
callable
corporate bond.
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The spot curve used for valuing a callable
corporate bond might be modeled as the Libor/swap curve plus spreads
for credit risk, liquidity and the optionality of the call feature. |
It should be emphasized that these spreads comprise a model for
valuing an obligation. In many cases, individual spreads are not observable in
the market. All that is observable is benchmark yield or spot curves and instrument
prices. Based upon these, various spreads may be inferred.
Note that the spreads in Exhibit 1 are constant across all
maturities. This is a standard simplifying assumption. More sophisticated models
might permit spreads to vary by maturity.
Spreads due to optionality arise with instruments such as callable
bonds or mortgage-backed securities
(MBS), which have embedded options. Generally, the
options are structured to the investor's disadvantage, so the instruments they are
embedded in trade at lower prices—higher spreads—than comparable instruments
that lack embedded options. Spreads due to optionality are
generally inferred using option-adjusted spread analysis.
Many instruments do not have liquid secondary markets, and their
prices are depressed for this reason. This is reflected in a
liquidity spread.
Liquidity spreads are apparent in the secondary market for US Treasury
securities. The most recently issued Treasuries are said to be
on-the-run. There
is a liquid secondary market for on-the-run Treasuries. Other Treasuries are
said to be off-the-run, and they have less of a secondary market. Because they
are less liquid,
off-the-run Treasuries routinely trade at spreads over comparable on-the-run
Treasuries. This is illustrated in Exhibit 2. On November 16, 2000, 174 distinct
Treasury securities were trading. Exhibit 2 plots YTM against maturity for all of these. At most maturities, the on-the-runs
are trading at 15 to 20 basis points below the off-the-runs.
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On November 16, 2000, 174 distinct
Treasury securities (bills, notes and bonds) were trading. YTM is
plotted against maturity for all of these. At most maturities, the
on-the-runs are trading at 15 to 20 basis points below the
off-the-runs. Note that above the 5-, 10- and 30-year on-the-runs
there are a smattering of off-the-runs trading at lower YTM's than
others. These are the most recently issued off-the-runs whose
liquidity spreads have not yet fully widened. |
Note that liquidity spreads are distinct from
bid-ask spreads.
The latter also depend upon liquidity. A distinction is that mid-market rates
are unaffected by the magnitude of the bid-ask spread. They are affected by the
magnitude of any liquidity spread, which shifts both the bid and offer rates in
the same direction.
Credit spreads reflect the particular nature of an obligation.
For example, secured debt generally has higher credit quality than subordinated
debt of the same issuer. They also reflect the financial condition of the
issuer, the issuer's industry and the issuer's home country.
If an obligation has both credit and liquidity spreads, it may
be difficult to separate these into two distinct spreads. As a practical matter,
it is rarely necessary to do so.
Tax spreads are generally
negative spreads reflecting tax advantages of certain obligations. In the United
States, income from most municipal bonds is exempt from federal taxation.
Consequently, investors in the highest tax brackets bid up the prices of
municipal bonds so that their YTM's are comparable to the after-tax YTM's of
other comparable bonds. Elton et al (2001)
suggest that much of the credit spread between high-quality corporate bonds and
US Treasuries can be attributed to the fact that Treasuries are not taxed at the
state level while corporates are.
Another example of tax spreads is
flower bonds.
Between 1953 and
1963, the US Treasury issued a number of
Treasury bonds with a special feature.
If tendered as payment of federal estate taxed, the bonds would be valued
at
par, irrespective of their current market value. Because of their association
with estate taxes and funerals, the bonds came to be called flower bonds. When
interest rates rose during the 1970s and 1980s, flower bonds traded at a
premium. The last flower bond had a
coupon of 3.5% and matured in 1998.
Other factors may
also contribute to yield or interest rate spreads. Random "noise" in bond prices
quoted by dealers is one example. Because bonds tend to trade in large blocks,
it is difficult for arbitragers to eliminate minor
price discrepancies. Aguais et al. (1998)
argue that there is also a cost-of-carry for holding corporate bonds. This might
be 15 basis points for highly rated short-term obligations.
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basis swap
A floating-for-floating interest rate or currency swap.
bond Securitized debt.
corporate bond
A bond issued by a corporation.
compounding
Simple, compound and continuously compound interest.
fixed income
term structure Refers collectively to a spot curve, forward curve,
discount curve, yield curve or any other curve that describes the time value of
money at a particulate point in time.
interest
rate parity An arbitrage condition that must hold between the spot interest
rates of different currencies.
interest rate risk
Risk due to uncertain future interest rates.
option-adjusted spread
Yield spread not attributable to embedded options.
return Any of a number of metrics for the
change in an asset's or portfolio's accumulated value.
spread risk
Risk due to exposure to some spread.
Treasury
security
US Federal Government debt obligation issued by the Department of Treasury.
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Fabozzi (2000)
is the standard reference on fixed income securities.
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Ads by Contingency Analysis
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Aguais, S. D., L.
Forest, S. Krishnamoorthy, and T. Mueller (1998). Creating value
from both loan structure and price, Commercial Lending Review,
13 (2), 13-24.
Elton, Edwin J., Martin J. Gruber, Deepak Agrawal and
Christopher Mann (2001). Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate
Bonds, Journal of Finance, 56 (1), 247-277. |
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