Risk

<body onLoad="MM_checkPlugin('Shockwave Flash','','http://www.riskglossary.com/default_nofl.htm',false);return document.MM_returnValue" stylesrc="../_private/template.htm" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" link="#669933" vlink="#000000" alink="#000000"> <div align="left"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" id="table1"> <tr> <td width="740"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" height="37" id="table2"> <tr> <td height="35" width="100%"> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" cellpadding="0" id="table3"> <tr> <td width="100%" align="left" valign="top"> <p class="header_gold">Risk</td> <td width="45" align="right" valign="bottom"> <map name="FPMap6"> <area href="http://www.contingencyanalysis.com" shape="rect" coords="1, 0, 44, 11" target="_top"> </map> <img border="0" src="../images/home.gif" usemap="#FPMap6" width="45" height="12"></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="100%" bgcolor="#CC9966" height="2"> <img border="0" src="../images/blank_2x2.gif" width="2" height="2"></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="0%" valign="top" bgcolor="#FFFFCC"> <table border="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" id="table4"> <tr> <td width="0%" align="left" valign="top"> <p class="header2_black">Explained:<br> <img border="0" src="../images/blank_1x100.gif" width="100" height="1"></td> <td width="0%" align="left" valign="top"><p class="word_list"> <a href="#Risk">risk</a><br> <img border="0" src="../images/blank_1x160.gif" width="160" height="1"></td> <td width="100%" align="left" valign="top"><p class="word_list"> <br> <img border="0" src="../images/blank_1x160.gif" width="160" height="1"></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="345" align="right" id="table5"> <tr> <td align="right" width="9" height="10"></td> <td width="336" height="10"> <font size="2"> </font></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right" width="9"> </td> <td width="336"> <map name="FPMap7"> <area target="_blank" href="http://www.riskexpertise.com/papers/risk.pdf" shape="rect" coords="0, 0, 335, 158"> </map> <img border="0" src="../images/defining_risk.gif" usemap="#FPMap7" width="336" height="159"></td> </tr> </table> <p><b><a name="Risk">Risk</a></b> has two components:</p> <ol> <li>uncertainty, and</li> <li>exposure.</li> </ol> <p>If either is not present, there is no risk. </p> <p>Suppose a man jumps out of an airplane with a parachute on his back. He may be uncertain as to whether or not the chute will open. He is taking risk because he is exposed to that uncertainty. If the chute fails to open, he will suffer personally. </p> <p>Now suppose the man jumps out of the plane without a parachute on his back. If he is certain to die, he faces no risk. Risk requires exposure and uncertainty.</p> <p>A synonym for uncertainty is ignorance. We face risk because we are ignorant about the future. After all, if we were omniscient, there would be no risk. Because ignorance is a personal experience, risk is necessarily subjective. Consider another example: </p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="345" align="left" id="table6"> <tr> <td width="336"> <script type="text/javascript"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script>  </td> <td width="9"> </td> </tr> </table> <p>A man is heading to the airport to catch a flight. The weather is threatening, and it is possible the flight has been canceled. He is uncertain as to the status of the flight and faces exposure to that uncertainty. His travel plans will be disrupted if the flight is canceled. Accordingly, he faces risk. </p> <p>Suppose a woman is also heading to the airport to catch the same flight. She has called ahead and confirmed that the flight is not canceled. She has less uncertainty and faces lower risk. </p> <p>In this example, there are two individuals exposed to the same event. Because they have different levels of uncertainty, they face different levels of risk. Risk is subjective. </p> <p>Risk is a personal experience, not only because it is subjective, but because it is individuals who suffer the consequences of risk. Although we may speak of companies taking risk, in actuality, companies are merely conduits for risk. Ultimately, all risks which flow through an organization accrue to individuals—<a href="../articles/common_stock.htm">stockholders</a>, creditors, employees, customers, board members, etc. </p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" id="table7"> <tr> <td height="30" valign="bottom" colspan="2"> <p class="header2_black">Related Internal Links</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#CC9966" height="2"> <img border="0" src="../images/blank_2x2.gif" width="2" height="2"></td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#FFFFCC" colspan="2"> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" cellpadding="6" id="table8"> <tr> <td width="100%"> <p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_link_glossary.gif" width="26" height="15"><a href="../articles/credit_risk.htm">credit risk</a> Risk due to uncertainty in a counterparty's ability to perform on an obligation.<p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_link_glossary.gif" width="26" height="15"><a href="../articles/hedging_and_diversification.htm">hedging and diversification</a> Techniques for reducing risk.<p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_link_glossary.gif" width="26" height="15"><a href="../articles/legal_risk.htm">legal risk</a> Risk from uncertainty due to legal actions or uncertainty in the applicability or interpretation of contracts, laws or regulations.</p> <p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_link_glossary.gif" width="26" height="15"><a href="../articles/leverage.htm">leverage</a> Debt financing or anything that can similarly magnify the risk and reward of an investment.<p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_link_glossary.gif" width="26" height="15"><a href="../articles/liquidity_risk.htm">liquidity risk</a> Risk due to uncertain liquidity.<p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_link_glossary.gif" width="26" height="15"><a href="../articles/market_risk.htm">market risk</a> Risk due to uncertainty in the market value of a portfolio.<p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_link_glossary.gif" width="26" height="15"><a href="../articles/operational_risk.htm">operational risk</a> Sometimes defined as encompassing all financial risks other than market and credit risks.</td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td height="30" valign="bottom" colspan="2"> <p class="header2_black">Related Papers</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#CC9966" height="2"> <img border="0" src="../images/blank_2x2.gif" width="2" height="2"></td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#FFFFCC" colspan="2"> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" cellpadding="6" id="table9"> <tr> <td width="100%"> <p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_paper_glossary.gif" width="21" height="15">Holton, Glyn A. (2004). <a target="_blank" href="http://www.riskexpertise.com/papers/risk.pdf">Defining risk</a>, <i> <a href="http://www.aimrpubs.org/faj/home.html" target="_blank"> Financial Analysts Journal</a></i>, 60 (6), 19–25.</td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td height="30" valign="bottom" colspan="2"> <p class="header2_black">Sponsored Links</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#CC9966" height="2"> <img border="0" src="../images/blank_2x2.gif" width="2" height="2"></td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#FFFFCC" width="75"> <img border="0" src="../images/ad_side_banner_1.jpg" width="103" height="285"></td> <td bgcolor="#FFFFCC" width="99%"> <script type="text/javascript"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script>  </td> </tr> <tr> <td height="30" valign="bottom" colspan="2"> <p class="header2_black">Related Forum Discussions</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#CC9966" height="2"> <img border="0" src="../images/blank_2x2.gif" width="2" height="2"></td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#FFFFCC" colspan="2"> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" cellpadding="6" id="table10"> <tr> <td width="100%"> <p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_bullhorn_narrow.gif" align="left" width="27" height="22"><a target="_top" href="http://www.contingencyanalysis.com/archive/link_thread/04-2/0000071f.htm">Subjective VaR</a> <i>01 Apr 2004</i><br> Subjective nature of risk—is anything truly random?<p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_bullhorn_narrow.gif" align="left" width="27" height="22"><a target="_top" href="http://www.contingencyanalysis.com/archive/link_thread/03-2/000047c7.htm">Why is risk/uncertainty unpleasant?</a> <i>12 Apr 2003</i><br> Modifying investors risk aversion.<p class="explanatory_text"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet_bullhorn_narrow.gif" align="left" width="27" height="22"><a target="_top" href="http://www.contingencyanalysis.com/archive/link_thread/99-1/00000247.htm">Risk Intuition</a> <i>16 Dec 1998</i><br> Debate about the definition of risk.</td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#FFFFCC" colspan="2"> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" cellpadding="6" id="table11"> <tr> <td width="100%" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">  <p align="center"><map name="FPMap0_I1"> <area target="_top" href="http://www.riskglossary.com" shape="rect" coords="0, 0, 164, 102"> </map><img border="0" src="../images/logo.jpg" usemap="#FPMap0_I1" width="165" height="103"></p> <p align="center"><span class="verdana10"> <a href="http://www.riskglossary.com/main/disclaimer.htm" target="_self">Disclaimer</a></span></p> <p align="center">website: <span class="verdana10"> <a target="_top" href="http://www.contingencyanalysis.com">http://www.contingencyanalysis.com</a></span><br> glossary direct link: <span class="verdana10"> <a target="_top" href="http://www.riskglossary.com">http://www.riskglossary.com</a></span><br> copyright © Contingency Analysis, 1996 - current</p> <p align="center"><map name="FPMap1_I1"> <area target="_top" href="http://www.contingencyanalysis.com" shape="rect" coords="0, 0, 240, 88"> </map><img border="0" src="../images/logo_glossary_white.gif" usemap="#FPMap1_I1" width="241" height="89"></p> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table> </div>   </body>